Carly Chynoweth sees an insecure future for graduates

Graduates should prepare themselves: it is unlikely that they will ever work long enough at a single company to earn a gold watch or a carriage clock. Instead, they should expect to be self-employed or to work on a series of short or medium-term contracts, according to a new report by the Future Foundation.

“Everybody wants security but I think security of every form will go down,” Adrian Furnham, a professor of psychology at University College London, says in the report. “Graduates will be offered a three-year or five-year contract, which they might have to renew or apply for their jobs again.”

Visions of Britain 2020, prepared for Friends Provident, the financial services group, says that the number of opportunities in finance and the public sector—traditionally big graduate recruiters — is likely to drop, while the number of graduates in the job market continues to grow. By 2020 the number of graduates in the workforce will be 50 per cent higher than today, meaning that standing out from the crowd will require a higher degree, such as an MBA, or a qualification from an elite university.

Most graduates will become just another commodity in a globalised world, says Dr Ian Pearson, a futurologist at the consultancy Futurizon. This means that pay for most graduates in the UK will drop as they find themselves competing with others from overseas.

“Why would an employer pay five or ten times more to get the skill in the UK? The rate that you can charge for [most graduate] jobs will come down to an international average. However, people with very elite skills will see their wages go through the roof.”

While Pearson nominates adaptability as the most useful skill in the future jobs market, a good grounding in science or technology will also be valuable. He lists augmented reality, nanotechnology, biotechnology and technology based on convergence between disciplines as growth areas. Another futurist, Rohit Talwar, the chief executive of Fast Future, adds genetics, environmental science and materials science to the list.

“There will be a huge proliferation of IT and science-related roles. Even today if you look at the jobs in the area there are many more than there were just ten years ago.”

This does not mean that non-technical graduates will be left jobless.

“There will also be a lot of people doing jobs that are enabled by technology,” Talwar says. “For example, narrowcasters [people who create specialised news, entertainment and other content] will rely on technology but they will be working at the creative front end.”

Jobs that are likely to disappear include those in customer service and administration and managerial jobs that focus on analysis: all of these roles will be automated, he says.

Pearson believes that even doctors could be replaced in the future as computers and robots take over diagnosis and surgery. However, nurses, teachers and anyone else offering direct personal contact will be in a good position, as human relationship skills require human beings. “If you want stability these are the areas to go for.”

Despite a great deal of political excitement about the potential for jobs in green industries such as renewable energy, he is more cautious. The sector is “a big bubble” that is too reliant on government funding, which could go as budgets tighten, he cautions.

Despite the expected changes in the job market, the steps that graduates should take to maximise their opportunities remain the same, says Chris Rea, business manager at Graduate Prospects. “Graduates who are prepared, flexible and well presented will have the best chance of getting a decent job.”

When there are more candidates than jobs available, recruiters can afford to be picky; having some sort of work experience and being confident when talking to groups of people will help graduates to stand out.